Markets on whether a series goes the distance — 2-0 versus 2-1, or a deciding fifth map — depend on how evenly matched the teams are and on how much per-map results correlate within a series. Momentum is real in esports: the team that wins map one wins map two more often than independence would predict. You fit that correlation from historical series and price the length markets, which are usually quoted as if each map were an independent coin flip.
Markets on Polymarket where series-length distribution model is the natural play:
