Quantitative#113

Settlement-Latency Term-Structure Trade

The same real-world outcome can settle at different wall-clock times on different markets, because some use UMA's slower dispute window while others auto-resolve quickly. Pair a fast-settling and a slow-settling market on the same event and trade the implied financing gap between them, capturing the time-value of capital that's locked up longer in the slow leg. The edge is pricing that capital-lockup difference, which the market ignores.

What you need to run it

Per-market settlement-mechanism + expected-liveness database
Same-event market pairing across resolution types
Discount-rate model for capital lockup duration
Capital allocator balancing both legs by settle-time

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where settlement-latency term-structure trade is the natural play:

Will BTC close above $100k on December 31, 2026? (paired fast- vs slow-settling listings)
Will the Fed cut rates at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? (paired across settlement types)
Will the named candidate win the 2026 Senate race? (mirror markets with different settlement timing)

Capabilities this demands

Model / quantData ingestionPatienceMulti-venue

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

Requirements4

CapabilitiesModel / quant, Data ingestion, Patience, Multi-venue

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.