Specialist#098

Space-Launch Slip & Scrub Modeling

Trade 'will it launch by date X' and 'will the launch succeed' rocket markets by modeling each provider's real-world track record of schedule slips and last-minute scrubs (SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, ISRO), plus weather windows and launch-range availability near the target date. The edge is that markets price too close to the published 'target' date, underestimating how often these programs slip and how long the delay tail runs.

What you need to run it

Per-vehicle historical launch slip/scrub database
Launch-range weather and notam/TFR feeds
Static-fire and milestone tracking from provider feeds
Slip-distribution Monte Carlo model

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where space-launch slip & scrub modeling is the natural play:

Will SpaceX launch the next Starship test flight by its stated target date?
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn complete an orbital launch before mid-2027?
Will ISRO's Gaganyaan crewed flight launch by end of 2026?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantFeed ingestionDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategorySpecialist

Requirements4

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Feed ingestion, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related specialist strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.