Most newer tokens release locked supply to teams and investors on a published vesting schedule, and a large unlock dumps sellable coins into the market on a known date. The size of the unlock relative to circulating supply and daily volume is the thing that matters — a 5% unlock into thin liquidity is a very different event from the same percentage into a deep book. You build the calendar ahead of time and position in price markets that straddle each unlock date.
Markets on Polymarket where token-unlock supply-overhang calendar is the natural play:
