Politics & Elections · Signal-Driven#272

Ad-Buy & Media-Reservation Tracking

Campaigns reserve television airtime weeks ahead, and those reservations are filed publicly with the FCC station by station. Where a campaign is spending — and, more tellingly, where it has cancelled reservations — is a direct read on its own internal polling, which is far better than any public poll. You track the filings and trade the race markets on what the campaigns believe about themselves rather than on what they say.

What you need to run it

Automated retrieval of FCC political-file filings across the relevant media markets
Normalisation of buys into per-voter spending by district or state
Alerting on cancellations and late additions, which carry the most information

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where ad-buy & media-reservation tracking is the natural play:

Will the Democrat win the Nevada Senate race?
Will the incumbent hold this competitive House seat?
Will the campaign contest Michigan in the final month?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionManual researchOn-chain / wallet

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketPolitics & Elections

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Manual research, On-chain / wallet

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related politics & elections strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.