Campaigns end for measurable reasons: money runs out, polling collapses below viability, staff depart, and the calendar reaches a state the candidate cannot win. Those inputs are all observable, and historical primaries give a clean base rate for exit timing given each condition. You build a survival model over the field and trade the nomination and drop-out markets, which routinely keep famous but non-viable candidates priced far above their real chance of continuing.
Markets on Polymarket where candidate drop-out hazard model is the natural play:
