There is a moment in every season when a result becomes mathematically settled — a team has clinched or is eliminated regardless of what happens next — and markets often keep trading at 96 or 4 cents for hours or days afterward. You run the elimination math continuously against live standings and buy the certain side for a small but genuinely risk-free spread. It is a patience trade: capital is tied up until resolution, so the return is the annualized carry, not the headline percentage.
Markets on Polymarket where clinch & elimination certainty trade is the natural play:
