The closing line is the final price a sportsbook shows before a game starts, and decades of evidence say it is the single most accurate public forecast of the outcome. This strategy does not try to beat the closing line — it tries to beat the clock, buying Polymarket sides that the line is steadily moving toward and exiting once the line settles. You are effectively front-running a slow, well-documented convergence rather than making an independent prediction about the game.
Markets on Polymarket where closing-line value harvest is the natural play:
