Sports · Quantitative#163

Weather-Adjusted Totals for Outdoor Games

Wind, rain and cold suppress scoring in outdoor sports in measurable, well-studied ways — a 20 mph crosswind is worth several runs in baseball and several points in football. Stadium-level forecasts update far more often than betting markets reprice. You pull a forecast for the exact venue, apply a scoring adjustment fitted on historical games in comparable conditions, and trade the total and outcome markets that have not moved with the weather.

What you need to run it

Venue-level hourly forecast feed keyed to stadium coordinates
Regression of scoring outcomes on wind, precipitation and temperature by league and park
Rules for late forecast changes, which can reverse a position hours before kickoff

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where weather-adjusted totals for outdoor games is the natural play:

Will the Packers vs Bears game go over 42.5 total points?
Will the Red Sox and Rays combine for over 8.5 runs?
Will the Giants beat the Eagles on Sunday?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketSports

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related sports strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.