Debate markets move violently in real time on moments that usually do not change the race, then partially revert once instant polls and focus-group results land an hour or two later. The historical record is clear that debate effects on actual vote share are small and short-lived. You fade the largest in-debate swings and take the other side of markets that reprice as though the race fundamentally changed, using post-debate polling as your exit signal.
Markets on Polymarket where debate-night instant-reaction trading is the natural play:
