Science & Health · Market Making#293

Decision-Date Quoting Around a Known Catalyst

A regulatory decision market has a published target date, which splits its life cleanly into a long quiet stretch and one violent moment. That is the ideal shape for a market maker: quote a moderate spread for months while the only flow is positioning, then go completely flat well before the decision window opens. The mistake is assuming the agency will use the whole clock — decisions and rejection letters both arrive early sometimes.

What you need to run it

Decision-date calendar with the historical distribution of early actions per agency
Fair value from phase- and pathway-specific approval base rates
Flatten rule that starts well before the target date, not on it

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where decision-date quoting around a known catalyst is the natural play:

Will the FDA approve this drug before its target date?
Will the advisory committee vote in favor?
Will the agency issue a decision this quarter?

Capabilities this demands

PatienceDomain knowledgeRisk management

At a glance

CategoryMarket Making

MarketScience & Health

Requirements3

CapabilitiesPatience, Domain knowledge, Risk management

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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