Politics & Elections · Market Making#271

Election-Night Quoting on the Reporting Curve

Election night is the highest-volume, widest-spread window political markets ever see, and most of the flow is emotional rather than informed. A market maker with an expected-vote model has a fair value nobody else in the book has, and can quote both sides through the swings that the running total produces. The risk is a genuine call or a reporting surprise, so quoting must stop the moment a race is called or the reporting pattern breaks from the model.

What you need to run it

Live expected-vote model producing a fair value from partial county returns
Two-sided quoting with tight inventory caps and rapid re-pegging
Automatic withdrawal on a race call or when reporting diverges from the model

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where election-night quoting on the reporting curve is the natural play:

Will Democrats win the Pennsylvania Senate race?
Will Republicans hold the Georgia governorship?
Will the Arizona Senate race be called for the Democrat?

Capabilities this demands

Low latencyModel / quantRisk management

At a glance

CategoryMarket Making

MarketPolitics & Elections

Requirements3

CapabilitiesLow latency, Model / quant, Risk management

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related politics & elections strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.