Several public election models publish daily probabilities using different methods — polls-only, polls-plus-fundamentals, and pure fundamentals — and their disagreements are informative. Markets tend to anchor on whichever model is being quoted in the news that week. You build a weighted consensus, weighting each model by its historical calibration rather than its popularity, and trade whenever the market drifts outside the ensemble's range.
Markets on Polymarket where forecast-model consensus gap is the natural play:
