Sports · Arbitrage#251

Moneyline, Spread & Total Coherence Lock

For a single game the win market, the points-handicap market and the total-score market all describe one underlying distribution of results, so they cannot disagree freely. A team priced at 70% to win but only 45% to cover a small handicap implies a scoring distribution that does not exist. You fit the implied distribution across all three, find the leg that breaks it, and trade that leg against the others.

What you need to run it

Joint scoring-distribution model per sport that ties win, handicap and total together
Simultaneous price capture across all related markets for the same game
Execution across several legs before the inconsistency is arbitraged away

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where moneyline, spread & total coherence lock is the natural play:

Will the Chiefs beat the Bills this Sunday?
Will the Chiefs vs Bills game go over 47.5 total points?
Will the Chiefs win by more than 3 points?

Capabilities this demands

Model / quantCustom code / APILow latency

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage

MarketSports

Requirements3

CapabilitiesModel / quant, Custom code / API, Low latency

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related sports strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.