Structural#103

Multi-Outcome Awards Dutch-Book Construction

On award and entertainment markets with many mutually-exclusive candidates, add up the YES prices of every candidate. If they sum to more than 100% (an 'overround'), bet against the field; if they sum to less than 100% (an 'underround'), buy the whole basket of candidates, since one must win. The edge is that casual bettors price each name in isolation and never compute the cross-leg total, leaving these thin niche slates structurally mispriced.

What you need to run it

Full order-book snapshots across all candidate legs
Overround/underround scanner with fee+slippage model
Multi-leg simultaneous execution bot
Capital to lock the full basket until resolution

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where multi-outcome awards dutch-book construction is the natural play:

Who will win Best Picture at the 2027 Academy Awards?
Who will win the 2027 Eurovision Song Contest?
Who will be named 2026 Time Person of the Year?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APILow latencyRisk managementSignificant capital

At a glance

CategoryStructural

Requirements4

CapabilitiesCustom code / API, Low latency, Risk management, Significant capital

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related structural strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.