Structural#115

Multi-Outcome Residual Long-Shot Sweep

In negRisk multi-candidate markets (where an adapter guarantees the set converts cleanly at resolution), the YES legs sometimes add up to less than $1.00, leaving a guaranteed residual, or a hopeless long-shot trades above the floor the adapter will pay it. Sweep the underpriced basket or short the over-floor tail, relying on the adapter's no-loss conversion guarantee. The edge is the structural floor/ceiling the adapter enforces, which thin tail legs violate.

What you need to run it

  • Live Yes/No sum monitor across all legs of negRisk groups
  • NegRiskAdapter convert/redeem floor calculator
  • Batched multi-leg execution with gas netting
  • Capital to hold residual basket to resolution

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where multi-outcome residual long-shot sweep is the natural play:

  • Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
  • Who will be named 2026 Time Person of the Year?
  • Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APIOn-chain / walletSignificant capitalModel / quant

At a glance

CategoryStructural
Requirements4
CapabilitiesCustom code / API, On-chain / wallet, Significant capital, Model / quant
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related structural strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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