Structural#052

Negative-Risk Conversion Arbitrage

Polymarket bundles certain multi-candidate events as a 'neg-risk' group, which lets you trade all the NO shares as one unit. This strategy buys the NO share of every candidate in the group when their combined cost falls below what the protocol will pay to convert them. You then use Polymarket's NegRiskAdapter contract to merge those NOs into a single guaranteed payout, pocketing the gap between the cheap fragmented NO prices and the fixed conversion value.

What you need to run it

  • NegRiskAdapter contract integration + ABI calls
  • Real-time per-leg NO ask prices for the event group
  • On-chain execution bot with conversion-cost accounting
  • Capital to hold all NO legs through conversion

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where negative-risk conversion arbitrage is the natural play:

  • Who will win the next UK general election?
  • Who will be the next Fed Chair?
  • Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APIOn-chain / walletSignificant capitalModel / quant

At a glance

CategoryStructural
Requirements4
CapabilitiesCustom code / API, On-chain / wallet, Significant capital, Model / quant
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related structural strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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