Late-season 'will this team make the playoffs' markets depend on thousands of possible remaining-results combinations plus tiebreaker rules that most traders never read. You enumerate the remaining schedule by simulation, apply the league's actual tiebreakers exactly as written, and produce a clean qualification probability. The mispricing is largest for teams whose path depends on other teams' results, because the crowd prices the team's own record and stops there.
Markets on Polymarket where playoff-seeding combinatorial tree solver is the natural play:
