Weather & Climate · Signal-Driven#261

Radar Nowcast for Same-Day Precipitation

For a market asking whether it rains in a city today, the highest-value data is not a forecast model at all — it is the radar mosaic showing where the precipitation is right now and which way it is moving. Extrapolating current echoes forward one to three hours beats any model at that range. You ingest the radar feed, project cell motion over the resolving station, and trade the same-day markets on physical observation.

What you need to run it

Radar mosaic ingestion with cell-tracking and motion extrapolation
Geofence on the exact resolving station rather than the metro area
Short holding horizon, since nowcast skill collapses past a few hours

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where radar nowcast for same-day precipitation is the natural play:

Will it rain in Los Angeles today?
Will Miami record measurable rainfall today?
Will there be a thunderstorm in Dallas this afternoon?

Capabilities this demands

Feed ingestionLow latencyCustom code / API

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketWeather & Climate

Requirements3

CapabilitiesFeed ingestion, Low latency, Custom code / API

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related weather & climate strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.