Teams playing the second night of a back-to-back, or arriving after three time zones of travel, underperform their baseline by an amount you can measure across thousands of past games. This is a structural edge available weeks in advance because the schedule is public. You compute a fatigue score for every team on every date and trade the games where the market has not discounted a tired side, which happens most often in the mid-season stretch nobody is watching.
Markets on Polymarket where rest, travel & schedule-fatigue model is the natural play:
