A season win-total market and the individual game markets for the same team describe the same reality, so the sum of the game probabilities has to line up with the futures price. Traders in the two markets rarely overlap, and the futures market updates slowly. You compute the implied win total from the game ladder and trade the futures market whenever the two disagree by more than a game — buying whichever side the more liquid, more frequently updated series supports.
Markets on Polymarket where season-futures vs game-by-game coherence is the natural play:
