Special elections are held throughout the off-year, and the swing relative to each district's baseline lean has proven to be one of the better predictors of the next general election's national environment. Each result is a data point most traders ignore because the individual race is obscure. You compute the running average swing across all specials and use it to reprice the big national markets before the next round of polling arrives.
Markets on Polymarket where special-election swing benchmark is the natural play:
