Weather & Climate · Arbitrage#259

Temperature-Band Ladder Coherence

Daily temperature markets are usually listed as a ladder of bands or thresholds for the same city and day, and those prices must be internally consistent: the chance of exceeding 95°F can never be higher than the chance of exceeding 90°F, and mutually exclusive bands must sum to one. Weather markets are thin and are often priced band by band by different traders, so violations appear regularly. You scan the ladder and trade the breaks.

What you need to run it

Full-ladder capture per city and day with monotonicity and sum-to-one checks
Multi-leg execution sized to the thinnest rung in the set
Verification that every rung resolves on the same station and the same definition

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where temperature-band ladder coherence is the natural play:

Will the high in New York City exceed 90°F today?
Will the high in New York City exceed 95°F today?
Will the high in New York City land between 85°F and 89°F?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APISignificant capitalManual research

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage

MarketWeather & Climate

Requirements3

CapabilitiesCustom code / API, Significant capital, Manual research

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related weather & climate strategies

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