Player-movement markets are dominated by rumor, and not all rumors are equal — a handful of reporters have documented hit rates near 90% while aggregator accounts are barely better than noise. You score every claim by the historical reliability of its source, treat 'here we go'-class reporting as near-confirmation, and fade markets that spike on low-tier sourcing. The edge is being calibrated about journalists rather than about players.
Markets on Polymarket where transfer-window & trade-deadline rumor tiering is the natural play:
