Markets asking whether vaccination coverage, treatment uptake or screening rates clear a threshold by a date are curve-fitting problems with strong seasonal structure — uptake front-loads heavily in the first weeks of a campaign and then flattens to a long tail. Weekly reported figures let you fit the curve early and project the endpoint with tight bounds. Markets tend to extrapolate the steep early phase, which badly overprices high thresholds.
Markets on Polymarket where uptake-curve model for coverage thresholds is the natural play:
